+14,000 Points XAUUSD price went up from the higher low area of the Ascending Triangle. previous higher low area analysis

XAUUSD Finds Temporary Support but Momentum Remains Limited

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XAUUSD is moving in an Ascending Triangle pattern, and the market has reached the higher low area of the pattern

XAUUSD is moving in an Ascending Triangle pattern, and the market has reached the higher low area of the pattern

Gold has always been seen as a safe-haven asset, a place investors turn to when uncertainty clouds the global economy. Recently, gold prices staged a noticeable rebound after hitting their lowest point in more than two weeks. While the recovery has been steady, several factors continue to shape the direction of the yellow metal. From shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policies to ongoing geopolitical tensions, the gold market is moving in response to both economic and political events. Let’s dive into what’s really happening and why gold is in the spotlight again.

Why Gold Is Rebounding After Hitting Lows

Gold’s recent bounce comes at a time when US bond yields are retreating and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are gaining momentum. When interest rates fall or are expected to fall, gold tends to benefit since it does not provide a yield of its own. In other words, when borrowing costs drop, holding gold becomes more attractive compared to other interest-bearing investments.

At the same time, the US dollar has shown some strength, which usually works against gold because it makes the metal more expensive for foreign buyers. However, optimism about future rate cuts has balanced this effect, allowing gold to maintain a positive tone despite the headwinds.

The Federal Reserve’s Role in Gold’s Next Move

The Federal Reserve’s actions and statements are at the center of gold’s current story. Many traders now believe that the Fed will move forward with lowering borrowing costs later this year, most likely beginning in September. According to recent market expectations, at least two interest rate cuts are being discussed for the remainder of the year.

When Gold Glitters and the Dollar Dulls

This speculation gained traction after several pieces of US economic data painted a mixed picture:

Producer Prices Rising: Data showed that US producer prices rose at the fastest pace since 2022. This points to stronger inflationary pressures, which usually push the Fed to stay cautious about big rate cuts.

Consumer Sentiment Weakening: On the flip side, consumer confidence has slipped, with surveys showing that many households feel less optimistic about the economy.

Retail Sales Growing: US retail sales figures indicated solid consumer spending, which keeps the economy on firm footing but complicates the Fed’s balancing act between supporting growth and fighting inflation.

Investors are now waiting for more clarity, especially from the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and an upcoming speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. These events will provide more insight into how the Fed views inflation, growth, and the timing of rate cuts.

Geopolitical Tensions Keep Gold in Focus

Gold isn’t just about economics—it’s also about geopolitics. Right now, attention is turning toward the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. European leaders are also expected to join discussions centered around finding a path toward peace with Russia.

-XAUUSD is moving in a downtrend channel

-XAUUSD is moving in a downtrend channel

These talks carry heavy weight because the conflict in Eastern Europe has already disrupted global trade, energy markets, and security dynamics. Any sign of progress could ease demand for safe-haven assets like gold. On the other hand, if tensions escalate or peace efforts stall, investors may once again flock to gold as a form of protection against uncertainty.

What Recent Data Says About Inflation and Spending

Inflation is one of the biggest factors influencing gold right now. Fresh data from the University of Michigan survey revealed that Americans expect inflation to remain higher in the short and medium term. One-year expectations climbed to 4.9% from 4.5%, while the five-year outlook also moved higher. This shows that people believe price pressures are not cooling off as quickly as many hoped.

At the same time, retail sales have continued to grow, showing that consumer demand remains resilient. A steady flow of spending can fuel inflation, which keeps pressure on the Fed to carefully weigh its rate decisions. While higher inflation usually benefits gold, as people turn to it as a hedge, strong economic activity can limit just how high gold can climb.

Events to Watch in the Coming Days

The gold market is especially sensitive to big events and announcements, and the coming days are packed with developments that could swing prices either way:

FOMC Minutes Release: Investors will comb through the details to see how divided or united Fed policymakers are on future rate cuts.

Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech: This will be one of the most closely watched events of the week. Any hint of a stronger commitment to cutting rates could fuel more gains for gold.

Geopolitical Meetings: Talks between US, Ukrainian, and European leaders may either calm or intensify uncertainty. Gold will likely react depending on the outcome.

global markets

The Balancing Act: Risk-On Mood vs. Safe-Haven Demand

One of the reasons gold hasn’t surged higher despite positive support from rate-cut bets is the broader “risk-on” environment in global markets. Investors are showing more willingness to take on riskier assets, like stocks, as they look forward to potential policy easing. When risk appetite rises, gold usually takes a backseat.

Still, the yellow metal remains supported by underlying worries—from inflation pressures to geopolitical instability. It may not be exploding upward, but it’s holding its ground firmly.

-XAUUSD is moving in a box pattern

-XAUUSD is moving in a box pattern

Final Summary

Gold has found its footing again after slipping to a two-week low, and its recovery is being shaped by a mix of economic data, Federal Reserve expectations, and global political tensions. While the US dollar’s strength and a stronger risk appetite are limiting big breakouts, the growing belief that rate cuts are coming soon is helping gold stay supported.

As we look ahead, key events like the Fed’s meeting minutes, Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, and high-stakes geopolitical talks could set the stage for gold’s next big move. Whether you’re an investor or just someone curious about how global events influence financial markets, one thing is clear—gold will remain a central player in the conversation about uncertainty, inflation, and the global economy.

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